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Parmar, D. J.
- Forecasting of Wheat Production and Productivity of Ahmedabad Region of Gujarat State by Using ARIMA Models
Authors
1 B. A. College of Agriculture, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 388110, Gujarat, IN
2 Information Technology, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 388110, Gujarat, IN
3 Department of Agricultural Statistics, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 388110, Gujarat, IN
Source
Indian Journal of Economics and Development, Vol 3, No 6 (2015), Pagination: 1-7Abstract
Background: ARIMA models were carried out to explain the fluctuations in production and productivity for wheat crop in Ahmedabad. Data from the year 1960-61 to 2010-11 were used for model fitting and forecasting ten years ahead from the year 2010-11.
Method: The ARIMA models with different p,d and q were judged based on autocorrelation function and partial auto correlation function at various lags and different ARIMA models were fitted.
Result: Among different fitted ARIMA models, ARIMA (0,1,1) family model was found suitable to forecast the pattern of wheat production and productivity trend of Ahmedabad region of Gujarat State.
Application: Forecasted values showed an increasing pattern in production and productivity of wheat in Ahmedabad region and predicted values for production and productivity of wheat in the year 2020-21 are3113.14 thousand tons and 1757.41 kg/ha respectively.
Keywords
Production, Productivity, Wheat, Ahmedabad, ARIMA.Full Text
- Study on Variability in Field Experiments of Wheat (Bhal and Coastal Zone) Crop and Yardstick
Authors
1 Department of Agricultural Statistics, Anand Agricultural University, Anand (Gujarat), IN
Source
International Research Journal of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol 7, No 2 (2016), Pagination: 178-181Abstract
The data on C.V. per cent for wheat (Bhal and coastal zone) crop yield along with other details of 374 field experiments conducted during 1989-90 to 2014-15 at Agriculture Research Station, Anand Agricultural University, Arnej and Dhandhuka centre were collected and analyzed. The frequency distribution tables were prepared for various experimental factors. The upper fiducial limits (the yardstick) of C.V. per cent at 95 per cent confidence based on non- central 't' distribution were worked out for accepting the results of wheat (Bhal and coastal zone) crop experiments which emerged as 15 per cent.Keywords
CV Per cent, Fiducial Limit, Plot Size, Non-Central t Distribution, Experimental Variability.
References
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- Correlates of Extent of Participation in Decision Making among Farm Women
Authors
1 Department of Extension Education, B.A. College of Agriculture, Anand Agricultural University, Anand (Gujarat), IN